This year, an estimated 60 countries, collectively representing half of the global population, are preparing for pivotal national-level elections, and some of these electoral outcomes might have outsized geopolitical significance.
While citizens will be lining up at ballot stations to elect their leaders in some of the most populous countries, including India, Indonesia, and the United States, experts are already sounding alarms about the global democratic trajectory in this bumper year of voting. Countries worldwide are grappling with well-documented challenges that impede the advancement of democratic ideals. In various regions, voters are increasingly gravitating towards populists who harbor deep distrust for the institutions that form the foundation of liberal democracy.
According to the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute, an ongoing trend of democratic decline is spreading across the world. In its annual report card, the Institute, based at the University of Gothenburg, warns of a growing community of autocrats worldwide, with a visible shift from democratic principles. Globally, the V-Dem Institute notes that the quality of elections is deteriorating, media censorship is on the rise, and academic freedoms are declining in over 25 countries, now classified as autocracies.
But none of this comes as a surprise.
Before this decline, Freedom House, a prominent democracy advocacy group, attributed the dramatic wave of democratization to the end of the Cold War. According to the Washington-based group, the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the subsequent collapse of the Soviet Union two years later cleared the way for the formation or restoration of liberal democratic institutions, not only in Eastern Europe but also in the Americas, sub-Saharan Africa, and Asia. However, this surge of progress appears to be rolling back. Today, for the first time in two decades, the world has more closed autocracies than liberal democracies. About 28% of the global population, equivalent to 2.2 billion people, lives under repressive forms of government, while only approximately 13%, or roughly 1 billion people, reside in liberal democracies.
Many observers believe that the current period marks the beginning of the long decline facing the concept of democracy. With the post–Cold War transition now concluded, they believe another shift in the global order is challenging long-standing democracies, both from within and outside.
According to experts, democracy is facing a crisis of confidence, with many citizens expressing doubts about whether it still serves their interests. And amid this period of recession, far-right populist movements are gaining significant traction in the political landscape all over the world. Freedom House notes that in many parts of the world, the rise of anti-liberal politicians is facilitated by their ability to promote an exclusionary national identity. This becomes a means for frustrated majorities to shield themselves against a changing global and domestic order. So far, these trends have placed several populist leaders in prominent positions in the heart of Europe – from Italy to Sweden, marking a serious shift in the political order of the continent. And in the words of recently elected hard-right Freedom party leader, Geert Wilders: “The genie will not go back in the bottle.” Across western capitals, Wilders is not the only genie that refuses to return to the bottle. He joins an expanding club of leaders who fall on the right side of the fence. In Rome, there is Prime Minister Georgia Melon, who began her career in movements that seek to revive fascism. Brothers of Italy, Melon’s current party, is considered as the most right-wing to lead the Mediterranean country since the collapse of Mussolini’s dictatorship over eight decades ago. Similarly, the self-proclaimed custodian of the blueprint for Western democracy, the United States, once again confronts the possibility of Donald Trump’s return to the White House in the upcoming presidential election. And according to Andrew Whitehead, an honorary professor at the University of Nottingham, the potential return of Trump to power next year, following a rematch with the aging incumbent, Joe Biden, is expected to bolster the influence of the far-right around the world. In Asia, India, the largest democracy, appears to be undergoing an accelerated democratic decline since the election of far-right leader Narendra Modi. As 960 million voters head to the polling booths later this year, Modi depends on the support of voters who have been promised an ethnic Hindu state, deviating from the secular vision outlined in India’s Constitution. In the same neighborhood, Pakistan faces its own set of issues. Having never achieved the status of a full democracy on the Freedom House scale, the country once again seems undecided about the fate of its governance system as it votes next month to elect another administration.
Now, as many of these countries head to the polls, consistent and ominous patterns suggest that the global democratic system itself is under stress due to a variety of factors, including populism, inequality and fatigue with electoral processes that promise fair representation yet fail to deliver it. To examine this retreat, the Express Tribune conducted interviews with a number of experts.
Current state
In today’s landscape, autocrats are well-positioned to argue a case against democracy: they bring extensive experience in manipulating their own populations, and reservoirs of public discontent to tap into, and above all, their claims resonate with the majority that up until yesterday was cheering for democracy. In short, champions of democracy face a shifting threat in 2024’s super election cycle.
From Sweden’s International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA), Dr. Seema Shah warned that, over the past six years, more countries experienced net declines in democratic performance than saw advances. “What is especially concerning is that the most widespread drivers of this decline are in the fundamentals of democracy – credible elections, effective parliaments that can check executives, and access to justice,” said Shah, Head of Programme, Democracy Assessment at International IDEA. “States are struggling to respect people’s civil liberties and to guarantee independent judges that can deliver objective verdicts. This is a serious problem, revealing that almost three decades after we ushered in the third wave of democracy, we haven’t mastered the basics of Democracy 101,” Shah added from Sweden, where she is based.
Linking the democratic backsliding to a number of severe crises confronting the world, Shah remarked, “There is a resurgence of interstate war, a climate disaster, the escalating cost of living, a wave of coups, and a continued surge in migration. In this context, democratic institutions find themselves under strain.”
According to the Global State of Democracy Indices, an annually updated quantitative dataset measuring the quality of democracy in 173 countries worldwide by International IDEA, it seems that democracy is contracting in every region of the world – more prominently in Africa, Asia, and even in Europe.
When asked if the global south was witnessing the sharpest decline in democratic norms, Shah responded, “I think it’s misleading to say that the global north enjoys democratic success. Our latest report illustrates how several longstanding and ‘established’ democracies are facing serious declines. Democratic weakness does not only affect countries in one area of the world. At the same time, there is worrying evidence that popular support for democracy is waning.” Referring to the World Values Survey, she pointed out that there has been a decline in the proportion of people who feel that democracy is ‘absolutely important’ in recent years.
Concurring with Shah’s views, Ashok Swain, a Professor of Peace and Conflict at the Uppsala University in Sweden, also alluded to the alarming decline in the legitimacy of democratic systems worldwide. “The current state of global democracy is deeply concerning, and this trend is not a recent development; it has persisted for almost two decades, marked by a decline in the number of countries embracing true democratic values. While it's not necessarily a shift towards full-fledged dictatorships, there has been a notable increase in undemocratic regimes over the past year.”
“What we observe in many instances is the facade of elections, which, despite taking place, are manipulated to favor authoritarian leadership,” he added.
Flaws in the system
According to Freedom House, democracy is under attack from populist leaders and groups that reject pluralism, demanding unchecked power to advance the interests of their supporters in most parts of the world.
Uppsala University’s Professor Ashok Swain believes that post-Cold War democracies promised much but struggled to deliver. He cautioned that ethnocentric politics is on the rise in many places. According to the Sweden-based academic, the existing political order traces back to figures like Bill Clinton in Washington and Tony Blair in the UK. “The poor and working class found themselves unrepresented, leading to a blurring of lines between left and right. As the left moved toward the center, disenfranchised groups felt abandoned, contributing to their disengagement from the political system. This void provided an opportunity for far right or ethnocentric parties to rise to prominence,” he explained.
In Swain’s opinion, when ethnocentric politics takes hold, democratic institutions suffer as they struggle to confront such ideologies. “Mainstream political parties often fail to challenge their own ethnocentric leaders, further exacerbating the challenges faced by democracies. The issue lies in the failure of democratic leaders to bridge the gap between the left and the right,” he added.
Referring to the recent coups d’état across Africa, Professor Swain said: “unlike typical military coups where leaders ride tanks and seize control of governmental offices, coups across Africa seem to come with popular support. It’s crucial to recognize the significance of these events and how the so-called democracies in those countries have failed to deliver, leading to such upheavals.” According to Swain, there is a diminishing commitment to democracy. “Even when the US or Biden speaks about it; it doesn't seem to be taken seriously by many,” he added.
From the International IDEA, a Sweden-based think tank focusing on global democracy, Dr. Seema Shah highlighted that all models of governance, including liberal democracy, have flaws. One significant issue is the persistence of serious inequalities despite promises of equality. Shah, who heads the Democracy Assessment Program, pointed to a prominent example in the US, where laws disguised as ‘election protection’ systematically disenfranchise people of color and minorities.
“The US is not alone. In many democracies, racism and discrimination continue to be prevalent and contribute to situations in which there is unequal access to institutions and services. In some ways, this is not surprising. Many people locate the origins of democracy in the Greek model. That model excluded women, foreigners, and slaves from citizenship. This is important to remember when we reflect on the legacies that current models of democracy live with,” Shah explained. Despite its flaws, Shah said that democracy is still the best model we have, primarily because it is the only one that has a built-in self-correction mechanism.
Young voters
Across the world, a significant number of young voters seem to be growing weary of the existing choices on the ballot, displaying increased signs of fatigue and frustration with a system they believe was created by generations before them, one that they believe does not genuinely represent their expectations. While polls and surveys indicate that this shift may still be in its early stages, it represents an alarming pattern that could potentially intensify in the coming years.
“I believe that there is a sense of frustration regarding inaction on certain issues (like climate change and environmental degradation) and the slow progress on other issues. Young people want to see change, and they want to see it faster,” said Dr. Seema Shah from International IDEA.
In some places, Shah noted that we are also witnessing the youth not relating to traditional political institutions, which may explain some of the shift. However, the Sweden-based expert cautioned that it’s important not to overstate this issue. “The Open Society Foundation’s recent poll showed that a majority (57 percent) of people aged 18-35 think democracy is preferable to any other form of government. It’s less than the proportion of older people who feel that way, but it’s still a clear majority,” she added.
This discourse on young voters, however, is a subject of debate even within thinktank circles. Gerardo Berthin, Vice President of International Programs at Freedom House, recently wrote that young people are disillusioned with democracy, but they’re finding alternative ways to make their voices heard. In his article titled, “Why Are Youth Dissatisfied with Democracy?” Berthin emphasized that young individuals feel excluded from crucial government decisions impacting their lives and future. Citing a UN global survey, the Freedom House expert highlighted that 76 percent of respondents under 30 believe politicians don't listen to young people. In South Africa, 90% of respondents shared such sentiments, along with 80 percent in Spain and the United Kingdom. Notably, despite half of the global population being under 30, a mere 2.6 percent of the world’s parliamentarians fall in that age group. Berthin expressed alarm over these statistics in his article published on the Freedom House website in September last year.
Key polls
With nearly half of the world’s population preparing to choose their leaders this year, every election holds significance for the overall health of global democracy. However, certain electoral outcomes will exert a more substantial and far-reaching influence on the world. One such election to closely monitor is in the US, where Joe Biden is once again pitted against the firebrand Republican leader, Donald Trump.
“If Trump secures the elections, it will raise numerous questions within the US and globally. The decline needs to be observed. While I am not suggesting he might declare himself the leader of the world for life, even if he does not, America may not retain its known status as a true democracy,” said Professor Swain.
In other countries, including the UK, which has become a minor player in this electoral politics, as well as most European nations, Swain pointed out that far-right parties are expected to perform better. He pointed out that elections are on the horizon for several South Asian countries, particularly India, where there are significant concerns about the election format, methods, and issues such as the type of ballot boxes and electronic voting.
“Despite elections taking place in many parts of the world, it appears unlikely that the trend of declining democracies will be reversed, and the global decline in democracies will likely persist,” the Sweden-based expert added.
Echoing similar views, Dr. Seema Shah from International IDEA thinktank said: "I believe that all elections deserve close attention. Of course, certain countries have a larger influence on the surrounding region. In that sense, it will be important to watch India, the US, South Africa, Mexico, Indonesia, and Germany."
State of US democracy
In his farewell address, Ronald Reagan, the 40th president of the United States, defined his vision of the shining city upon a hill. Reagan, known for his efforts against communism and the Soviet Union, was the ultimate mascot of the Western democratic system at the time. Fast forward to 2016, Donald Trump’s election reset that vision. America became more reclusive, and the government in Washington became more conservative even in its views about democracy and freedom. For the first time in its history, a sitting US president held a meeting with a North Korean leader, known for being a repressive dictatorship for decades. That was a historic endorsement for such regimes. But shortly after that Trump was defeated by Joe Biden almost four years ago.
That defeat may have been significant at the time, but the upcoming presidential election in November will be the ultimate battle for America’s democracy. Trump’s return, according to experts, will end up serving as the final nail for democracy at home and abroad. The Republican leader’s previous term in office served as a significant boost for authoritarian regimes around the world, and his potential second term might end up being a powerful shot in the arm for all such movements.
Interestingly, despite all the challenges facing its democracy, the US also appears to be overly confident about the state of its democratic system. In a recent news conference, Biden was asked if he believed China’s president was a dictator. Biden responded: “He’s a dictator in the sense that here’s a guy who runs a country that is a Communist country based on a form of government totally different from ours.” With Trump advancing like a steamroller in the Republican primaries, decimating all his opponents and hopefuls from within his own party, it seems appropriate to state that Biden’s comment about China’s Xi might come back to haunt many Americans after the election in November.
On the ground, Biden, who is now America’s oldest president, a series of national polls paint a grim electoral picture. According to polls conducted last November by The New York Times and Siena College, the president was trailing his predecessor in five of the six most important battleground states roughly one year before the 2024 election, suffering from enormous doubts about his age and deep dissatisfaction over his handling of the economy and a wide range of issues.
“The US democracy is more at risk this year than it has been at any year since the American Civil War,” cautioned Storer H. Rowley, a former National Editor and foreign correspondent for the Chicago Tribune.
Rowley, who has reported and covered several US administrations, explained that there’s a grievance collection mentality that somehow this white majority is aggrieved because their way of life has to be shared with black people, brown people, people of color, people from different countries.
“I would love to say it’s the last gasp of that, and it’ll burn itself out this century when my generation dies off. But I think it’s more deeply ingrained than that. So, like ancient Rome, America is being eroded from within.”
Referring to the Republican Party as a cult, Rowley added: Trump has convinced his followers that he is the ultimate strongman who can bring America back for them.
“The guardrails, as they like to say these days, are there, but people must enforce them. The danger is that Trump and his ilk have practiced with his first term on how to overturn these guardrails, and they'll be a lot better at it in the second term,” the former national editor cautioned.
According to Rowley, this is not an issue of Republicans versus Democrats. “This is an issue of small D Democrats versus fascists, authoritarians, and dictators who don’t care about the rule of law, as long as it prevents them from getting what they want, who don’t care about elections. If Trump wins, he’s great. If you lose, the elections are rigged. That is not democracy.”
Rowley warned that Trump's return to power would be the beginning of another period of isolationism for the US – the first since the 1930s. “People should be afraid that if the Republicans are back in power, they will damage America’s role in the world, they will follow an isolationist trend of the '30s.”
In an article published in the Washington Post, Philip Bump, a national columnist, recently cautioned that Trump, who appears to be set to return to the White House is already displaying his authoritarian tendencies more openly than the last time. Trump, according to Bump, plans to root out disloyal bureaucrats and install ideologically sympathetic ones. The former president, Bump said, is speaking more openly of using the Justice Department to target his opponents.
Commenting on the current state of democracy, Rowley said: “Democracy is fragile. It must be nurtured, tended, enforced, and defended with every generation. And this is what we are doing. Citing a quote from Benjamin Franklin, one of the founding fathers he said: “A lady asked Dr. Franklin Well Doctor what have we got a republic or a monarchy--A republic replied the Doctor if you can keep it.”
“We have always had a tendency towards dissolution since the very beginning,” he concluded.